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Mumbai attacks may destabilise Pakistan: study

* Stratfor says India, US will have joint interest in forcing Pakistan to act decisively and immediately
* Private forecaster stresses holding Pakistan responsible still an assumption, but India likely to blame foreign quarters

By Iftikhar Gilani

NEW DELHI: Pakistan may face ‘massive destabilisation’ under pressure from India and the US as fallout of the serial terror attacks in Mumbai, a Texas-based private research agency has warned, and the attacks may also bring India and Pakistan back to the brink of a nuclear confrontation – a reference to a military standoff between the two countries in 2002 after a terrorist attack on Indian parliament.

In an analysis on the geo-political fallout of the Mumbai attacks, Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) says, “If the attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants – as it appears – the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the US into the fray.”

Stressing that India is already under enormous pressure to respond to the attacks, it said, “Events point to a serious crisis not simply between Pakistan and India, but within Pakistan as well – with the government caught between foreign powers and domestic realities.”

Stratfor – which specialises in providing focused insight and actionable intelligence to help governments prepare for uncertainties – says the Indians will have no choice but to be assertive, and the US is likely to follow suit.

Joint interest: “Whether it is the current government in India that reacts or the one that succeeds doesn’t matter ... given the circumstances, massive destabilisation (of Pakistan) is possible – (which is) never a good thing with a nuclear power,” says the Stratfor analysis. It says the Indians and Americans would have a ‘joint interest’ in forcing the Pakistani government ‘to act decisively and immediately’.

“The shape of the crisis will (then) consist of demands that the Pakistanis take immediate steps to suppress Islamist radicals across the board, particularly in Kashmir. New Delhi will demand that this action be immediate and public. This demand will come parallel to US demands for the same actions and threats by incoming US President Barack Obama to force greater cooperation from Pakistan. If that happens, Pakistan will find itself in a nutcracker. The Indians will be threatening action – deliberately vague but menacing – along with the Americans. This will be even more intense if it turns out, as currently seems likely, that Americans and Europeans were being held hostage in the two hotels that were attacked. If the attacks are traced to Pakistan, American demands will escalate well in advance of inauguration day.”

Assumption: The Stratfor analysts, however, make it clear that “this is thinking far ahead of the curve, and (the warning) is based on an assumption of the truth of something we don’t know for certain yet, which is that the attackers were Muslims and that the Pakistanis will not be able to demonstrate categorically that they weren’t involved”.

“Since we suspect they (the terrorists) were Muslims and since we doubt the Pakistanis can be categorical and convincing enough to thwart Indian demands, we suspect we will be deep into a crisis within the next few days ... very shortly after the situation on the ground clarifies itself,” the Stratfor analysts have predicted. But they have also said the Indian government would claim the involvement of foreign quarters – regardless of the truth – to use the situation to strengthen their internal position.

“That, in turn, will plunge India and Pakistan into the worst crisis they have had since 2002.” If the Pakistanis are understood to be responsible for the attack, then the Indians must hold them responsible, and that means they will have to take action in retaliation — otherwise, the Indian government’s domestic credibility will plunge. “The Indians and Americans will have a joint interest in forcing the Pakistani government to act decisively and immediately ... the crisis will directly intersect US and NATO operations in Afghanistan,” the study adds.

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